An economic evaluation of management strategies to mitigate the negative effect of twinning in dairy herds

Our objectives were to develop an economic model to estimate the economic impact of twinning in dairy cows and to evaluate management strategies to mitigate the negative economic impact of twinning in dairy herds. A probabilistic tree considering spontaneous embryo reduction, early pregnancy loss, abortion, metritis, retained placenta, and culling rate at 120 d of the second, at the end of the second, and at the end of the third lactation was developed for a single pregnancy; we also developed 3 management options upon diagnosis of a twin pregnancy: (1) do nothing, (2) induce abortion using PGF_2α, or (3) attempt manual embryo reduction. A value was given to each branch of the tree by simulating cow states on a farm for 1,400 d to encompass 4 consecutive lactations. The incomes considered in the simulations included milk income over feed cost, income from calves, and slaughter value upon culling. The expenses taken into account depending on each branch included additional inseminations and synchronization protocols, embryo reduction, induction of abortion, replacement heifers, and costs due to metritis and retained placenta. The gross value for a singleton pregnancy and the 3 management options upon diagnosis of a twin pregnancy were calculated by adding the value of all braches multiplied by their probability. The costs for the 3 management options were calculated by subtracting its gross value minus the gross value of a singleton pregnancy. The negative economic impact of a twin pregnancy ranged from $97 to $225 depending on the type of twin pregnancy (unilateral vs. bilateral), parity, and DIM when the twin pregnancy occurred. The overall negative economic impact of twinning on dairy farm profitability in the United States was estimated to be $96 million per year. Attempting manual embryo reduction early during gestation upon diagnosis of a twin pregnancy was the optimal management strategy for mitigating the negative economic impact of twinning under a wide variety of scenarios.     

The effect of traffic data source on deterioration rates of heavy-duty flexible pavements

The purpose of this study is to assess the effect of traffic data source (estimated vs. actual) on predicted progression rates of roughness and rutting for heavy-duty flexible pavements of rural freeways. Progression rates are predicted using calibrated HDM-4 models. The assessment is performed in terms of variations in maintenance intervention timing associated with the variations in progression rates. Time series pavement condition data (covering 3–5 years) have been collected for 7 sections of rural freeways for use in calibrating HDM-4 deterioration models. They range in length from 10 to 60.8 km and cover different traffic volumes, climate zones and subgrade soil types. For these sections, estimated annual average daily traffic (AADT), growth factors and assumed loading have been extracted from relevant database. Only six segments of these sections have Weigh-in-Motion (WIM) sites so relevant actual AADT, growth factors and axle load distributions have been extracted from WIM reports. The results of running the calibrated HDM-4 deterioration models using different traffic data show that actual traffic data from WIM sites result in higher rates of deterioration to that of estimated data for four sites, resulting in earlier intervention timing and higher present value agency cost. The other two sites have lower rates with actual data due to lower traffic loading than estimated.     

Data envelopment analysis based on team reasoning

Existing approaches to data envelopment analysis focus mainly on the derivation of the efficiency of the individual decision‐making unit (DMU) or on the calculation of the weights of multiple inputs or outputs, but pay little attention to the team interest of all the DMUs. Motivated by the idea of team reasoning, in which the benefit of the team is of higher importance than that of each individual, this paper considers all the DMUs as a team and introduces the team indexes including the overall efficiencies, variance, boundaries of all the DMUs, and relationships between DMUs. Several models are first developed to estimate values of the team indexes based on which decision makers can provide their preferences regarding them. Then, models are established to obtain the interval efficiencies of individual DMUs under the condition that the team indexes are satisfied. Several examples are given to illustrate the proposed approaches and verify their applicability.     

儿童用品TBT通报数据可视化预警研究

探索采用数据可视化技术分析儿童用品TBT通报数据,以可视化图形图像呈现通报热点并揭示趋势信息,提出对策与建议,助力为儿童用品产业升级、TBT预警数据分析和信息传播工作提供新思路,提高中小企业的国外市场准入机会。     

Investigation of seasonal variations of Beijing pavement condition data using unevenly spaced dynamic panel data model

Beijing municipal highway administration started to collect pavement condition data on its major expressways since 2006. It is advised in the Chinese practice standard that data collection shall be conducted on annual basis. However, pavement data are usually collected at different seasons of the year, which may cause significant seasonal variations in the observed condition. Moreover, for some reasons, data are missing for some of the pavement sections at certain years, which could bring up difficulties in performance model estimation and inference. These concerns have been simply neglected in past practice. This study proposed an unevenly spaced dynamic panel data model to investigate the seasonal patterns of a performance indicator called Ride Quality Index (RQI). A quasi-differencing approach was adopted for the estimation. Data collected from the 5th Ring Road of Beijing were used in the case study. It was found that RQI data collected during the fall season are expected to be lower than that collected during the spring or summer seasons. Findings from this research would be helpful to pavement engineers in using unevenly spaced pavement condition data for future condition estimation.     

Sustainability assessment of Iranian petrochemical companies in stock exchange: A data envelopment analysis-based approach

The assessment of efficiency is always of particular importance according to different indicators from different perspectives. There are various techniques for evaluating petrochemical companies, among which the data envelopment analysis technique is one of the best techniques that can be used to calculate the relative efficiency of a set of decision-making units with network structures. In the present paper, seven petrochemical companies listed in the Iranian stock exchange were analysed. These companies were evaluated in terms of financial performance and sustainable development, and their relative efficiency was calculated during 2015–2016. According to the obtained results, only Marun Petrochemical Co. was found to be efficient in all areas and years. The results also showed that four companies were efficient in financial terms over the period under study. In the general conclusion regarding the companies' performance, Marun was ranked first, Jam was ranked second, and Zagros was ranked third.     

The control of paracetamol particle size and surface morphology through crystallisation in a spray dryer

The parameters governing the crystallisation of paracetamol using various conventional techniques has been extensively studied, however the factors influencing the drug crystallisation using spray drying is not as well understood. The aim of this work was to investigate the crystallisation of an active pharmaceutical ingredient through evaporative crystallisation using a spray dryer to study the physicochemical properties of the drug and to use semi-empirical equations to gain insight into the morphology and particle size of the dried powder. Paracetamol solutions were spray dried at various inlet temperatures ranging from 60 °C to 120 °C and also from a series of inlet feed solvent compositions ranging from 50/50% v/v ethanol/water to 100% ethanol and solid-state characterisation was done. The size and morphology of the dried materials were altered with a change in spray drying parameters, with an increase in inlet temperature leading to an increase in particle Sauter mean diameter (from 3.0 to 4.4 µm) and a decrease in the particle size with an increase in ethanol concentration in the feed (from 4.6 to 4.4 µm) as a result of changes in particle density and atomised droplet size. The morphology of the dried particles consisted of agglomerates of individual crystallites bound together into larger semi-spherical agglomerates with a higher tendency for particles having crystalline ridges to form at higher ethanol concentrations of the feed.     

区域控制器的安全需求建模与自动验证

轨道交通区域控制器（ZC）是我国轨道交通信号系统选型的主流制式——基于通信的列车控制系统（CBTC）的核心子系统，其突出的安全性使得安全需求的形式化验证成为一个非常重要的问题.但是ZC自身的复杂性以及领域知识的繁杂难以掌握，使得形式化方法很难应用到安全需求的验证中去.针对这些问题，提出一种安全需求的自动验证方法，使用半形式化的问题框架方法（PF）来建模和分解安全需求，根据需求模型自动生成安全需求的验证模型和验证性质，在此基础上自动生成验证模型的Scade语言实现，并通过Design Verifier验证器对需求进行组合验证.最后，使用了某个实际案例ZC的一个子问题CAL_EOA进行了研究，实验结果证明了该方法的可行性与有效性，它能自动地将安全需求模型进行组合验证，改善了验证的效率.     

A Stochastic Petri Net-Based Model of the Involvement of Interleukin 18 in Atherosclerosis

Interleukin 18 (IL-18) is a proinflammatory and proatherogenic cytokine with pleiotropic properties, which is involved in T and NK cell maturation and the synthesis of other inflammatory cytokines and cell adhesion molecules. It plays a significant role in orchestrating the cytokine cascade, accelerates atherosclerosis and influences plaque vulnerability. To investigate the influence of IL-18 cytokine on atherosclerosis development, a stochastic Petri net model was built and then analyzed. First, MCT-sets and t-clusters were generated, then knockout and simulation-based analysis was conducted. The application of systems approach that was used in this research enabled an in-depth analysis of the studied phenomenon. Our results gave us better insight into the studied phenomenon and allow revealing that activation of macrophages by the classical pathway and IL-18-MyD88 signaling axis is crucial for the modeled process.     

煤田地震勘探中多井组合爆炸法浅析

地震勘探中炸药作为激发震源的激发条件多样,采用有效的震源激发方式,才能取得高信噪比的地震原始数据。本文依据有关爆破原理,理论结合实践经验,提出在厚黄土区采用多井组合的激发方式,能有效压制噪声,增强性噪比,提高数据质量。